Over the years, people have become happier about gambling. However, according to an analysis of data collected from popular betting markets or prediction markets Polymarket and Kalshi, traders are expecting new record highs in the price of Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) in 2025. There is also quite some expectations related to pending approvals of new crypto exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and setting up Bitcoin reserves in the United States.
Bitcoin and Ether: Predictions for Record Prices
On both platforms, Polymarket and Kalshi, things are looking good for the probability of Bitcoin and Ether breaking their all-time highs by 2025. By December 26th, Kalshi’s newsmakers were betting with over a 60% chance that BTC would cross $125,000 and Ether would break $5,000. At the same time, Polymarket stands with 50% odds that Bitcoin would achieve $120,000 in March end of 2025.
Bitcoin’s current record high stands at approximately $108,300, and Ether’s is around $4,720, so both assets are poised for significant growth if these predictions hold true.
ETFs of crypto are coming near
In addition to the price forecasts, the prediction markets also spend their sorrows on regulation developments as many traders are expecting a very eventful year for crypto ETFs. The Polymarket bettors claim that the regulators in the U.S. will approve ETFs in XRP, Solana, and Litecoin by 31 July 2025, with probabilities of around 75%, 69%, and 51%, respectively. At the same time, the odds of approval concerning a Dogecoin ETF stand at much lower chances, at roughly 22%. ETFs would open new institutional avenues and add legitimacy to the cryptocurrency market.
Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Use and Political Influence
At the extreme end of the Kalshi prediction spectrum is the establishment of a national tactical Bitcoin reserve under the Donald Trump presidency. According to Kalshi, there is a 59% chance that Trump would initiate such a reserve during his term, while the chance given by Polymarket for this happening in his first 100 days in office is 29%.
Kalshi and Polymarket made headlines during the U.S. elections, their betting markets winning out over other forecasting methods in predicting Trump’s victory as well as that of his party’s in Congress. Such success has imparted more faith in any predictions that the crypto markets may make.
Mixed Signals: Futures Market Might be Less Bullish.
While betting markets are sounding the bullish tune, conventional futures markets are less positive on the prospects. In the CME marketplace, traders are pricing in close to $98,000 worth of spot prices in March 2025 for Bitcoin and $3,500 for Ether. However, these expectations, while representing a healthy upward adjustment from their much-reduced December 2025 spot prices, are still far less than the bullish prophecies of the betting forums.
Futures contracts, which allow investors to speculate on the price of an asset at a future date, remain a critical tool for hedging and speculation in the crypto market. However, the relatively moderate expectations from futures traders suggest a more cautious outlook for early 2025.
Conclusion
The future of cryptocurrencies in 2025 is quite ambivalent. Betting markets seem pretty optimistic forecasting record levels for Bitcoin and Ether, as well as some major regulatory moves such as approving new crypto ETFs and creating a Bitcoin reserve. Traditional futures, on the other hand, seem to be taking a more pragmatic approach by forecasting moderate price gains for the first quarter of the year.
As always, one should approach the crypto market with caution bearing in mind the potential for massive profits as well as the associated risks. Whether bull or bear betting, predictions of 2025 have set the stage for keen observation on things crypto as the year’s developments unfold.
