Bitcoin and crypto institutional product outflows underline what’s shaping to be a classic September for BTC price action. Bitcoin BTC enters a fresh week battling to retain crucial support as markets set up for a barrage of macroeconomic volatility catalysts.
According to data flagged by popular analyst Caleb Franzen on September 17, BTC/USD is now testing support at the lower boundary of a channel it has held since mid-March and its $73,800 all-time high.
The channel neatly encapsulates the six months of consolidation since—and even the dip below $50,000 in early August was not enough to invalidate it.
CPI leads key Fed rate cut decision
A packed week of US macroeconomic data led to the pivotal Federal Reserve interest rate decision on Sept. 18.
In the coming days, we will also see both the Consumer Price Index number and more unemployment figures and the Producer Price Index for August.
Whereas the latter saw the bulk of risk-asset reactions last week, now markets are looking for any last-minute surprises that could change bets on what the Fed will do next.
This is the last week of inflation data before the long-awaited September Fed meeting,” trading resource The Kobeissi Letter wrote in part of its latest X posts on the topic.
Kobeissi added that US stocks had suffered since the month began, making Bitcoin and altcoins no outliers in their lackluster performance.
“September 2024 has still not seen a single green day in the S&P 500 – a great trading setup,” it added.
The latest estimates from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool still favor market pricing in a rate cut on the more modest side of the scale – 25bps rather than 50. Of course, this could change as the macro data rolls in. Kobeissi, though, is among those arguing the Fed is unlikely to surprise to the upside.
The crypto institutional investment sees a “red” week.
The past week has been unkind to crypto institutional investment products, with capital fleeing the sector.
In one decidedly bearish market appraisal, Bank of America revealed the worst slew of crypto fund outflows since the 2022 bear market.
Coming in at around $600 million last week alone, this, Kobeissi notes, thus represents the second-largest such outflow in the history of the industry.
Over the past several weeks, crypto funds have consistently posted outflows, which was different from in Q1 when weekly inflows were as high as $3.3 billion,” an X post partly said.
Similarly grim is the picture the US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds are recording with net outflows for every day last week.
Data from UK-based investment firm Farside Investors shows that two of the four trading days saw net outflows above $200 million.
“Bitcoin is down ~15% over the last two weeks and is trading ~25% below its all-time high,” Kobeissi added to wrap up.
Conclusion
History is repeating itself, according to Julien Bittel, the head of macro research at Global Macro Investor.
This year’s Bitcoin price structure is starting to look eerily similar to 2019’s. Take a close look at the chart—it’s almost a perfect fractal of what we saw back then,” he told X followers at the weekend.
The fractal Bittel refers to suggests that Bitcoin (BTC/USD) may be nearing a critical “inflection point” where the price could shift dramatically upward, potentially signaling a sustained bullish trend. If history does repeat itself, this could be the moment Bitcoin enthusiasts and investors have been waiting for—a return to the upside that may last for an extended period.
On the other hand, popular trader Peter Brandt has issued a cautionary note. Brandt has expressed concern that BTC/USD is lagging, particularly given the most recent halving event in March. In his view, Bitcoin’s price action has been slower than expected, raising questions about whether it will follow through on the bullish momentum typically anticipated after a halving. Halving events have historically led to significant price increases, but the delayed response this time has left some market watchers uncertain.
As the market continues to evolve, these contrasting perspectives offer a reminder of Bitcoin’s unpredictable nature. Whether Bittel’s fractal analysis proves accurate or Brandt’s concerns hold true, Bitcoin remains a highly speculative asset, and its price trajectory in the coming months will be closely watched by traders and investors alike.
